Non-Prior Service Reserve Enlistments: Supply Estimates and Forecasts.
Abstract
Enlisted supply studies of the Selected Reserve have lagged behind research on the active components. In large part because of the paucity and relatively poor quality of reserve data, the findings of many earlier reserve studies have been of limited usefulness to Department of Defense (DoD) policymakers. Perforce, in manpower planning, policymakers have often relied on supply elasticities estimated for the active components despite questions about their applicability to the Selected Reserve (DoD, 1985). This study takes a first step in addressing some of the DoD policy needs for enlisted supply estimates relevant to the Selected Reserve. One part of the effort involved data cleaning and imputation for missing data in the Reserve Components Common Personnel Data System (RCCPDS), collection of information on recruiters and goals, and development of a local labor market data base. For the purposes of the study, a common definition of the local labor market-the Military Enlistment Processing Station or MEPS-was adopted for all reserve components. Using these MEPSs-based data, non-prior service (NPS) enlisted supply models were estimated for three components: Army Reserve, Army National Guard, and Naval Reserve. The models sought to account for the effects of recruiter behavior and the potential impact of intercomponent competition for NPS recruits. Finally, estimated model parameters were used to develop forecasts of non-prior service enlistments to 1994 over alternative economic scenarios.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 1991
- Accession Number
- ADA313335
Entities
People
- Hong W. Tan
Organizations
- RAND Corporation