A Markov Model for Parametric Sensitivity Analysis of Crusader Effectiveness.

Abstract

This thesis presents a Markov model for analyzing the sensitivity of Crusader effectiveness to parametric changes in Crusader capabilities. Crusader activities are represented as finite-state, discrete-time Markov chains. A series of supporting models for some of the Markov model parameters provide for the desired sensitivity analysis on specified engineering characteristics of a Crusader. A Microsoft Excel V7.0 spreadsheet serves as the user interface, computational tool for the models. A Microsoft Visual Basic program manipulates the transition probability matrices then returns the results of the Markov model. Available measures of effectiveness include the time until Crusaders are killed by enemy counterfire and the number of fire missions executed and lost by Crusaders. A demonstration of the spreadsheet implementation shows the models can be used for the desired sensitivity analysis. While creating a model for Crusader was the motivation for this thesis, the model can be used to conduct similar analysis on current or competing field artillery systems.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jun 01, 1996
Accession Number
ADA316985

Entities

People

  • John R. Duke

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Armored Personnel Carriers
  • Artillery
  • Artillery Ammunition
  • Artillery Fire
  • Basic Programming Language
  • Computer Programs
  • Engineering
  • Indirect Fire
  • Infantry Fighting Vehicles
  • Markov Chains
  • Markov Models
  • Operations Research
  • Probability
  • Programming Languages
  • Spreadsheet Software
  • Test And Evaluation
  • User Interface

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Mathematical Modeling and Probability Theory.
  • Military Science