Shipboard Casualty Forecasting: Adjustments to Ship Hit Probabilities.

Abstract

Adjustment factors needed to contemporize World War Il-based hit probabilities of the SHIPCAS casualty projection model were investigated. Subject Matter Experts provided quantitive responses corresponding to the perceived shifts in hit probability associated with each present-day weapon system when compared to the baseline hit rate. The largest projected increases in hit probability were associated with submarine-launched guided missiles and submarine launched torpedos with passive homing systems. Hit probabilities associated with individual weapon system% ranged from a 90% decrease to a 233% increase when compared to WWII ship hit likelihood. Empirical data also indicated that ship hit likelihood decreased with distance from land objective.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jul 30, 1996
Accession Number
ADA317467

Entities

People

  • Christopher G. Blood
  • Jeffrey S. Marks
  • Michael S. Odowick

Organizations

  • Naval Health Research Center

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical
  • Ground and Sea Platforms
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Anti-Radiation Missiles
  • Ballistic Missiles
  • Cruise Missiles
  • Fire Control Systems
  • Guided Missiles
  • Naval Operations
  • Naval Vessels
  • Naval Vessels (Combatant)
  • Rockets
  • Second World War
  • Ship Launched
  • Ships
  • Submarine Launched
  • Submarines
  • Weapon Systems
  • Weapons
  • Wire Guidance

Readers

  • Maritime and Naval Warfare Studies
  • Military History of the United States in the 20th Century.
  • Naval Personnel Management