A Composite Approach to Air Force Planning
Abstract
After the 1996 presidential election and independent of who is elected, the Department of Defense will probably conduct a major review of national military strategy and the current basis of force planning, the Bottom-Up Review (BUR). Comparable reviews may in the future be conducted every four years, as recommended by the report of the President's Committee on Roles and Missions (CORM). A question for Air Force planners is how best to prepare and contribute. What issues should the Air Force consider, what planning methods should be brought to bear, and when? Also, should the Air Force recommend methods for more general DoD use? Given the preeminent position of the United States, the most important determinant of the future international security environment is the set of choices that it makes about its role in the world, its objectives, and the extent to which to be proactive in shaping the international system. During the Cold War, the United States was more certain about its national security objectives, and it had a grand design. No grand design for the new era has yet jelled. If a consensus emerges on a new design, that design would have a major impact-providing a filter for assessing the relative importance of various kinds of challenges that the national defense strategy must consider. Given this context, as one thinks about approaches to force planning methods, three principles should be kept in mind: 1) Traditional "threat-based planning," the stalwart of defense planning for decades, is no longer an adequate basis for mid and long-range planning (see, e.g., Secretary of Defense William J. Perry's 1996 report to Congress). Focusing on a few point scenarios suppresses too many issues; 2) National security planning should instead confront head-on the reality of substantial uncertainty in many dimensions, political and strategic as well as purely military; a
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 1996
- Accession Number
- ADA319932
Entities
People
- Paul K. Davis
- Zalmay M. Khalilzad
Organizations
- RAND Corporation