Ambiguity and Its Effect on Foreign Policy Decision Strategies And Choice.

Abstract

While ambiguity seems to be a critical environmental factor affecting foreign policy decision making, decision research has virtually ignored this concept in favor of others such as complexity, risk, and uncertainty. This research project examines the concept of ambiguity, distinguishing it from other environmental characteristics, and presents an experimental analysis of its effect on decision- making. Specifically, process tracing technology via the foreign policy `decision board platform' (introduced by Mintz and Geva 1996) is used to test the application of the poliheuristic theory of decision to analyzing ambiguity and its effect upon decision strategy and choice. while the results show no linear relationship, they do indicate that ambiguity and decision strategy/choice are curvilinearly related. This suggests that there may be some optimal level of ambiguity in the decision environment - a finding that extends previous studies arguing that decision strategy and choice are linear functions of cognitive strain.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jan 09, 1997
Accession Number
ADA319993

Entities

People

  • Russell D. Driggers

Organizations

  • Air Force Institute of Technology

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Ambiguity
  • Data Analysis
  • Decision Theory
  • Economic Sanctions
  • Foreign Policy
  • Governments
  • Information Processing
  • International Conflicts
  • International Relations
  • New York
  • Political Science
  • Psychology
  • Reasoning
  • Statistical Analysis
  • United States
  • War

Readers

  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.
  • Theoretical Analysis.