An Alternative Scenario for the Reunification of Korea.

Abstract

This paper predicts an alternate scenario to Korean reunification to those currently being discussed in and out of South Korea. Much of what has been written discusses the demise of the present North Korean government along a spectrum of turbulence, from gradual decay to violent implosion. The predicted results also vary from peaceful absorption by the South Korean government to a 'war of desperation' scenario precipitated by the decaying Northern regime in a last ditch effort to retain power. This paper explores a scenario where the two Koreas end up as secondary players in the future of the Korean peninsula. The primary regional actor to emerge will be China. As the ascendant regional power, China will shape events on the Korean Peninsula to fit its own future vision of Northeast Asia. It is further proposed that this Chinese vision will seek to maintain the peaceful division of North and South Korea in the short term (10 to 20 years) following the demise of the present North Korean government. China is seen, in this scenario, as moving unilaterally, on the basis of long-standing agreements with North Korea, into North Korea as the government implodes.It is in the Chinese interest to prevent the uncontrolled rise of a new, potentially powerful reunified Korean regional competitor. Additionally, China will seek to minimize United States' influence in the region, For obvious historical, military and economic reasons, the Japanese desire to maintain the geopolitical and economic status quo will cause them to play a supporting role in the Chinese effort. This move, together with its predictable control of the Spratly Islands oil and natural gas reserves, an already powerful military, and rapidly growing economy, will put China in a position to much more effectively influence the future of the region.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
May 10, 1997
Accession Number
ADA326958

Entities

People

  • Steve A. Fondacaro

Organizations

  • United States Army War College

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Counter WMD
  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Space
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Agreements
  • Foreign Policy
  • Governments
  • Korean War
  • National Politics
  • National Security
  • Negotiations
  • New York
  • North Korea
  • Northeast Asia
  • Political Systems
  • Second World War
  • Security
  • South Korea
  • Treaties
  • United States
  • War Colleges

Readers

  • Asian Economic Studies
  • East Asian Political and Security Studies within the Soviet Union
  • International Relations, focusing on Korea-Africa and North Korea-South Korea relations, and Nigeria-Latin American Relations.