Visualization and Judgmental Forecasting of Simulated Battles.
Abstract
Army officers were given information about battles fought in training exercises. They were required to report upon the current situation and to predict future locations and strengths of the forces involved. A battery of cognitive tests was also administered. Accuracy of judgment was associated with experience and with some of the cognitive abilities tested particularly with memory for spatial relationships at which the officers excelled. However, the influence of experience was dependent upon the inherent predictability of the scenario experienced officers did better on a normal mission plan but were less accurate on a plan that was poorly executed. The overall pattern of results suggested that accuracy is strongly influenced by the pace of battle. Static or slowly changing conditions were relatively easy to visualize and predict, but rapidly changing conditions were associated with large increases in error.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- May 01, 1997
- Accession Number
- ADA328489
Entities
People
- Douglas K. Spiegel
- James W. Lussler
- Robert E. Solick
- S. D. Keene