Prediction of Changeover Performance: Operational Test (OT) Parameters from Developmental Test (DT) Parameters via Meta-Analysis
Abstract
This paper sketches and examines some analytical statistical concepts and methodologies that should usefully inform and sharpen the process of military test and evaluation decision making. The concepts fall into the broad category of combining information. Developmental testing (DT) refers to the testing of a new or upgraded system in the course of its technical engineering development. Operational testing (OT) is conducted later by operational military personnel in the field. Because of the rigors of field operation there is the expectation that OT failure rates are related to, but likely to be higher, than DT failure rates. The relationship between DT and OT failure rates is modeled and estimation of model parameters examined. A likelihood-based pooling of observations from sensors with a range-dependent precision is studied. Alternatives to the circular normal dispersion model are examined and estimation of the model parameters sketched; experience shows that in projectile testing it is often the case that some individual shots deviate from aimpoint more wildly than described by the customary circular normal model.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Aug 01, 1997
- Accession Number
- ADA328590
Entities
People
- Arthur Fries
- Donald P. Gaver Jr.
- Patricia A. Jacobs
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School