A Stochastic Enhancement to the Analyst's Workbench

Abstract

The Analyst's WorkBench is a deterministic integrated framework developed and used by the Weapons Planning Group at NAWC China Lake. The model has no stochastic capability which requires all analysis to be conducted using parameters based on expected values of occurrence. This thesis develops a stochastic enhancement that can be incorporated in the Analyst's Workbench. Independent identically distributed (IID) events can be generated by calls to the enhancement as a parametric input. To demonstrate the application of a stochastic process within the Analyst's WorkBench, a test scenario of a ship defense model is developed. A large scale missile attack is simulated deterministically and stochastically to demonstrate the differences of a random probability of successful defense vice an expected value of success. It is shown that the stochastic results provide a more realistic simulation and that the deterministic results overstate the capability of a system subject to random events that can be described by a statistical distribution.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 01, 1996
Accession Number
ADA331448

Entities

People

  • Andrew W. Melton

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Acquisition
  • Battle Damage Assessment
  • Damage Assessment
  • Data Analysis
  • Data Science
  • Defense Systems
  • Information Science
  • Normal Distribution
  • Operations Research
  • Probability
  • Random Number Generators
  • Random Variables
  • Reliability
  • Simulations
  • Statistical Distributions
  • Stochastic Processes
  • Test And Evaluation

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Maritime and Naval Warfare Studies
  • Statistical inference.