Etiology of an Intelligence Estimate.

Abstract

This study deals with improving one of the United States defense intelligence community's most important tasks - assessments of potentially hostile nations future force capabilities. It is dedicated to the premise that intelligence can do a better job of meeting customers' needs for future estimates despite being in an era of significantly restricted budgets and reduced personnel. The approach taken is somewhat unique compared to most current literature about improving intelligence. Most, like the recent report by the Commission on the Roles and Capabilities of the US Intelligence Community, dated March 1, 1996, look at block diagrams and organizational charts to figure out better functional layouts. Other views, like General Kroesan's comments, take the customer's perspective as their approach to improve intelligence. By contrast this study looks at the internal intelligence process that produces estimates. This approach focuses on improving the internal ways futures estimates are done. The emphasis here is directly upon improving the process and the product, not on reorganizing the institutions.

Open PDF

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Apr 01, 1997
Accession Number
ADA331481

Entities

People

  • Donald C. Shultis Jr

Organizations

  • Dwight D. Eisenhower School for National Security and Resource Strategy

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Counter WMD
  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Human Systems
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Adaptive Systems
  • Aircrafts
  • Commerce
  • Complex Adaptive Systems
  • Computer Programs
  • Computers
  • Department Of Defense
  • Employment
  • Governments
  • Intelligence Cycle
  • Military Budgets
  • Military History
  • Military Operations
  • National Security
  • Students
  • United States
  • War Colleges

Readers

  • Enterprise Information Systems Architecture and Joint Command Capability Interoperability Support.
  • Government and Public Administration Law.
  • Regression Analysis.