Chaotic Arms Control: Decision Making for the Post-Cold War.

Abstract

During the height of the cold war, arms sales reflected the bipolar competition between the United States and the Soviet Union. They were political in nature and designed to allow proxies to fight the battles of the superpowers. When the cold war ended, the established framework to justify arms sales disappeared while the level of weapons sales continued to climb. The apparently uncontrolled proliferation is coming under intense scrutiny. What is the proper balance between conventional arms control and arms sales in the post cold war? What is the role, if any, of arms control agreements and negotiations? We looked at the historical record and found no connection between arms sales and the onset of war over the past 200 years. Except for the introduction of the breech loading rifled musket, there is also no data to suggest the sale of advanced weapons increases the intensity of war. The lack of connection between arms sales and war does not mitigate the problem many US Presidents are facing-US sold weapons are still used in conflicts around the world. The future of arms control focuses on minimizing these adverse effects of arms sales. In order to minimize the adverse effects, we looked at Chaos Theory for possible answers. We built upon earlier studies to show decision making is the root of Chaotic results in human systems. We identified the attractors, stability, and controls necessary to reduce adverse effects of US arms sales.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Apr 01, 1996
Accession Number
ADA331634

Entities

People

  • Dean Longo
  • Jeon
  • Mohammad Alamgir

Organizations

  • Air Command and Staff College

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Counter WMD
  • Human Systems
  • Space

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Arms Control
  • Civil War
  • Foreign Policy
  • Foreign Relations
  • Governments
  • Intergovernmental Organizations
  • International Organizations
  • International Relations
  • International Security
  • Linear Systems
  • Middle East
  • National Politics
  • National Security
  • Nonlinear Dynamics
  • Second World War
  • Treaties
  • War Colleges

Fields of Study

  • Political science

Readers

  • East Asian Political and Security Studies within the Soviet Union
  • International Relations and European Studies
  • Military History of the United States in the 20th Century.