Counterfactuals and Policy Analysis in Structural Models
Abstract
Evaluation of counterfactual queries (e.g., 'If A were true, would C have been true?') is important to fault diagnosis, planning, determination of liability, and policy analysis. We present a method for evaluating counter-factuals when the underlying causal model is represented by structural models a nonlinear generalization of the simultaneous equations models commonly used in econometrics and social sciences. This new method provides a coherent means for evaluating policies involving the control of variables which, prior to enacting the policy were influenced by other variables in the system.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 01, 1995
- Accession Number
- ADA332582
Entities
People
- Alexander A. Balke
- Judea Pearl
Organizations
- University of California, Los Angeles