Warning Times and Impact Predictions of Asteroids and Comets on a Collision Course with Earth

Abstract

This study investigates the amount of data and time necessary to accurately predict Earth impacts of Earth Crossing Objects (ECOs). Trajectories are simulated by numerically integrating in an N-Body system. Given final impact parameters, the trajectory is propagated backwards to an earlier time, creating initial conditions and simulated observation data at requested intervals to which Gaussian random noise is introduced. Utilizing a Bayes Filter to estimate position and velocity from the simulated observation data, the estimate is then propagated forward in time to determine whether or not an impact can be accurately predicted. State vectors and covariance matrices are then propagated to the impact time and the one sigma error ellipsoid is analyzed.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Dec 01, 1997
Accession Number
ADA335000

Entities

People

  • Ahren D. Heidt

Organizations

  • Air Force Institute of Technology

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Space
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Artificial Satellites
  • Asteroids
  • Bayes Filters
  • Bodies
  • Charge Coupled Devices
  • Collisions
  • Coordinate Systems
  • Equations Of Motion
  • Measurement
  • Nuclear Bombs
  • Observation
  • Orbits
  • Photographs
  • Physical Properties
  • Solar System
  • Trajectories

Readers

  • Approximation Theory.
  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Space Exploration and Orbital Mechanics.