Forecasting Market Index Performance Using Population Demographics
Abstract
This study attempted to verify claims made by forecaster Harry S. Dent, Jr. It utilized regression analysis in order to determine the correlation between the number of births and the closings on a market index with a specified lag between the input and output variables. While the research was able to develop a model with the factor Dent considers the most important, the predictions based on this model did not completely coincide with the forecasts Dent makes. Furthermore, the research could not confirm the accentuation Dent places on a 46-year lag between predictor and response variables. As an extension, scenarios for Japan, the United Kingdom, and Germany were examined. This analysis could not confirm the hypothesized extension of Dent's theory to other countries.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 01, 1998
- Accession Number
- ADA342117
Entities
People
- Bradley J. Alden
Organizations
- Air Force Institute of Technology