Risk and Soviet Security Decisions
Abstract
Soviet leaders have generally adopted a risk averse approach to procuring weapons and using military power, especially if the latter meant risking direct confrontation with the United States. This pattern has remained generally true even as relative Soviet military capabilities have grown. This is not to say the Soviets never take risks. They are quick to take advantage of opportunities that arise, provided the risks are not too high. They also appear more willing to take larger risks if the costs of inaction appear greater. There are several exceptions to general Soviet risk aversion in using military power. But in each instance, the Soviet Union has fared rather badly when it chanced large risks in pursuit of correspondingly high potential gains. Such experiences are likely to discourage similar behavior in future. For these reasons, the preferred Soviet security strategy appears to be one that offers small, but steady, gains in return for minimizing Soviet exposure to risk and uncertainty. The foregoing suggests the Soviets will also take a low risk approach to dealing with the U.S. Strategic Defense System.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Feb 12, 1990
- Accession Number
- ADA344519
Entities
People
- Andrew W. Hull
- David R. Markov
Organizations
- Institute for Defense Analyses