Long-Term Budgetary Pressures and Policy Options

Abstract

The large baby boom generation will begin to retire in about 10 years, and as the demographic structure of the population changes, federal revenues will grow more slowly and outlays for Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid will rise. Moreover, because spending per enrollee in Medicare and Medicaid is expected to climb faster than the average wage, the share of income spent on those programs will increase even without any change in demography. Because of those pressures, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that deficits will reemerge and grow in the years after 2008 unless current policies are changed. The long term deficit problem could be resolved by many combinations of spending reductions and tax increases. This report focuses on Social Security and Medicare because those programs are so large and so directly affected by the aging of the population. The approaches discussed illustrate the types of steps that could be taken to slow the growth in spending on those programs. The analysis shows how combinations of those options would reduce the size of the long term fiscal imbalance. Although it will be difficult to limit spending on entitlements for the elderly in the face of the projected increase in the number of people eligible for them, doing so will confer substantial gains on the economy.

Open PDF

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
May 01, 1998
Accession Number
ADA345952

Entities

Organizations

  • Congressional Budget Office

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Baby Boomers
  • Commerce
  • Demographic Cohorts
  • Demography
  • Economic Analysis
  • Employment
  • Federal Budgets
  • Health Care
  • Health Services
  • Investments
  • Law
  • Local Governments
  • Money
  • Personnel Management
  • Statistical Analysis
  • United States
  • United States Government

Readers

  • Economics
  • Medical or Health Care Field.