Allocating and Launching MaRV Interceptors Based on Miss Distance Predictions
Abstract
We have developed battle management algorithms for assigning and launching ground-based interceptors to neutralize a threat consisting of multiple decoyed MaRVs and BRVs in their terminal phase. Decisions are based on the minimization of expected leakage risk, and they specifically account for uncertainties and errors in the identity of each threat object, although detailed discrimination issues are not discussed. In contrast to standard probabilistic approaches, the algorithms are physics-based and use kinematic and geometric models for estimating interceptor-MaRV miss distances and probabilities of kill to determine optimal waiting times before launch. Based on a test comparing interceptor and MaRV technologies, the minimax algorithm finds the waiting times for which the minimum probability of kill is a maximum. To avoid a full multidimensional optimization, we use a "greedy" one-dimensional approach where only the most urgent threat is addressed optimally, conditional to allocating to the remaining threats (dimensions) a nominal quantity of interceptors determined by previous optimizations. One-on-one engagements are thus emphasized, and the preponderance of the work discussed in this report was directed towards the development of a miss distance prediction algorithm, called the MD Algorithm. While functional and software testing of the whole battle manager is still under way, experiments with the MD algorithm have been completed and have provided useful insights which generally agree with conclusions reached by others. It was found that miss distances are not very sensitive to relative interceptor-MaRV velocities but are quite sensitive to relative maneuvering capabilities, as measured by relative lateral acceleration limits. More specifically, for MaRVs and interceptors with conventional capabilities, and for a total defense system response time of 0.1 second, the minimax miss distance was predicted to be about 600 feet.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 01, 1988
- Accession Number
- ADA351492
Entities
People
- G. C. Corynen
Organizations
- Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory