The Development of a Seasonal Climate Forecast Methodology for ITCZ Associated Rainfall Applied to Eastern Africa.
Abstract
A detailed examination is performed of Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) associated rainfall over Eastern Africa. A methodology is developed for seasonal climate forecasting of ITCZ-associated rainfall which shows reasonably dependable predictability. Using this methodology, rainfall probability decision flowcharts are produced which are simple enough to use in seasonal forecast efforts by a variety of users. Their purpose is to provide improved predictive guidelines for forecasting either actual rainfall amounts or for an indication of rainfall trends three months in advance. Also explored is whether rainfall trends during the passage of the ITCZ can be determined by examining rainfall trends which occur earlier as the ITCZ traverses a region. The area of research is divided into four seasonal rainfall patterns, within four regions, corresponding to the latitudinal displacement of the ITCZ. The data are examined based on preceding conditions and minimal statistical assumptions and relationships are formulated within regions and between seasons. A time series visualization of ITCZ-associated rainfall data is created by combining the regional indices for all four regions in sequential order through the period of study. Key relationships are found after examining the first-difference transformation of this seasonal time series.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 11, 1998
- Accession Number
- ADA353049
Entities
People
- Ronald P. Lowther
Organizations
- Texas A&M University