The Probability of Negation of a Cruise Missile,
Abstract
Since the ballistic missile (BM) trajectory can be determined uniquely, the probability of negation for a BM can be determined as a function of the pair of launch and target (impact) points. On the other hand, if a cruise missile (CM) is detected at some point along its route, its intended target cannot be singled out; the CM route from the launch point to its intended target point is not unique. Given the pair of launch and target points, the probability of negation for a CM is, therefore, route dependent. Here we propose a simple method to obtain the route most likely to be chosen by the enemy, given any pair of launch and target points. One may assume conservatively that the enemy would pre-plan his CM route to minimize negation along the entire route. Accordingly, among all the routes connecting a pair of launch and target points, this particular CM route is the Least Defendable Route (LDR) for the defense. Our method has three steps: (1) Define a risk function locally in terms of the probability of detection and the conditional probability of engagement and kill once detected, defined over the entire battlefield, (2) Find the LDR, which is the route of Least Cumulative Risk for the enemy, and (3) Calculate the probability of negation for this LDR. Two methods to find the LDR's are presented: Calculus of Variations and Shortest Path (Cost). A simple numerical example is given as a demonstration of our method. Finally, conclusions and suggestions for future work are made.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Nov 19, 1998
- Accession Number
- ADA357518
Entities
People
- Laura T. Lee
- N. S. Sivakumaran
- Paul A. Bigelman
- Robert J. Jesionowski