Explaining Weapons Proliferation: Going Beyond the Security Dilemma
Abstract
Most analyses addressing the subject of why states choose to proliferate focus on external motivations, particularly the security dilemma, facing a country's leaders. This paper concludes that, other factors, such as prestige, regime type and stability, and economic status, can have impact in determining proliferation outcomes. In the case of Newly Independent States of the former Soviet Union (NIS), the domestic problems generated by internal, conflicts, arms remaining from the Cold War, excess defense industrial capacity, economic difficulties and the breakdown of central authority resulting in a loss of border control and corruption have all made the NIS an extremely fertile ground for weapons proliferation. A more positive "rollback" situation has emerged in Latin America where both Argentina and Brazil have seemingly decided to forgo the acquisition of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. The U.S. must understand the "strategic personality" of each potential proliferation. Not all state behavior can be explained in terms of the security dilemma. One must also keep in mind the complexity of possible motivations. Economic and technological assistance and cooperative efforts at institution-building hold great potential to combating proliferation.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jul 01, 1994
- Accession Number
- ADA365406
Entities
People
- Gregory J. Rattray
Organizations
- United States Air Force Academy