Nuclear Proliferation: Diminishing Threat?
Abstract
An apparent paradox is emerging in nuclear proliferation. On one hand, the technical barriers to entry into the nuclear club have been progressively eroded; yet the drive to obtain nuclear weapons has been declining. This trend confounds the commonly accepted systemic explanation for nuclear proliferation. The anomaly of fewer potential proliferators despite reduced technical barriers suggests that decisions about acquiring nuclear weapons may now be influenced by a different calculus. To illustrate that nuclear diffusion is a declining, though still dangerous, phenomenon that requires reevaluation in terms of basic concepts, research, and policy. The paper reviews the progress of proliferation and non-proliferation and examines the debate over both. It then examines the evolution of anti-proliferation measures, chiefly those of denial. Emerging disincentives and related nuclear postures are assessed, along with factors that might either explain or reverse them. The final section explores changes in approaches to non-proliferation that might be conducive to exploiting new conditions and thinking. These observations illustrate a point that has been neglected in much of the non-proliferation literature: the crucial demarcation line in the current phase of the nuclear era lies between nuclear weapons initiative and viable, deployable nuclear forces.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Dec 01, 1995
- Accession Number
- ADA365427
Entities
People
- William H. Kincade
Organizations
- United States Air Force Academy