Systematic and Integrated Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting. Part 3. Traits Knowledge Base for JTWC Track Forecast Models in the Western North Pacific
Abstract
All highly erroneous NOGAPS and GFDN track forecasts (72-h error > 300 n mi) in the western North Pacific during 1997 are examined and responsible error mechanisms are identified using the conceptual models of the Systematic Approach Meteorological Knowledge Base. An important and encouraging result of this research is that only six error mechanisms account for 84% (91 of 108) of the poor NOGAPS track forecasts, and only three error mechanisms account for 68% (61 of 90) of the poor GFDN track forecasts. The indications and characteristics of these frequently recurring error mechanisms in the forecast tracks and fields of the models are thoroughly documented and one or more illustrative case studies are provided for each error mechanism. This documentation is organized into a 5 level preliminary Model Traits Knowledge Base for use by TC forecasters when applying the Systematic Approach to formulate the official track forecast. The results of this research also provide model developers and researchers at FNMOC, NRL Monterey, and GFDL with specific information needed to improve the TC track forecasting performance of the NOGAPS and GFDN models.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 01, 1999
- Accession Number
- ADA365559
Entities
People
- Lester E. Carr Iii
- Russell L. Elsberry
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School