Impact of a Regime Change in Saudi Arabia-- An Operational Perspective.
Abstract
Saudi Arabia enjoys great strategic importance on the world stage and a particularly significant role as the centerpiece of the United States operational endeavors in the Persian Gulf. Our understandings with Saudi Arabia are primarily unwritten, lending a special weight to our relationships with Saudi rulers. King Fahd and each foreseeable successor are in their mid-to late seventies, making rapid successions a distinct possibility. The notably vague rules for long-term succession, combined with a government already grappling with domestic power-sharing considerations, make the disposition of future Saudi rulers especially significant. Although an ouster of the Al Saud regime is unlikely, new rulers will face more pressure to remove Western troops and will likely decline to allow some future offensive strikes against such rogue states and Iraq. Our primary Saudi-based functions are security assistance, command and control, and land-based airpower. Such activities as Air Expeditionary Forces, while not detracting from our current status in Saudi Arabia, allow us to foster better operational relationships and with other countries, hone our ability to deploy/employ land-based airpower (the most vulnerable of our functions to Saudi reluctance), and exercise the associated command and control should we face a diminished Saudi presence. A thorough review of professional literature reveals that in every feasible scenario for change in Saudi government, over time the U.S. should expect increasing constraints on operational freedom of action from Saudi soil.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Apr 01, 1998
- Accession Number
- ADA367232
Entities
People
- Craig K. King
Organizations
- Air Command and Staff College