China: Future Partnership or Strategic Adversary.
Abstract
China is poised to become the world's foremost economic power in the twenty-first century. With its burgeoning economic trade surpluses, it poses a security dilemma as it sets upon a course of military modernization. East Asian nations have begun a naval arms race to protect their interests, namely energy and economic sea lines of communication. This places the United States at a crossroads leading either to an economic partnership or adversarial relationship as China's political leadership reorganizes after Deng Xiaoping's death. The United States should transition away from Cold War nuclear paradigms. China's history and culture frame current political values which assist economic negotiations, or deterrence. China is interdependent on energy sources to fuel its growing economy, which will in turn satisfy its population. It will therefore seek a stable regional environment. China's rise as a great economic power is countered by its population growth, communist philosophy of state ownership, incomplete economic reform, shortages of arable land, lagging infrastructure, and unchecked industrial pollution. The United States should continue to engage China but tie economic and technological assistance to political reform. Chinese military modernization gives a very limited capability in projecting offensive strategic power in the near future. China's continued economic development is perhaps the greatest force towards maintaining a peaceful relationship.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 01, 1997
- Accession Number
- ADA367451
Entities
People
- Louis R. Volchansky
Organizations
- United States Air Force Academy