Probability of Negation for Cruise Missiles Using Least Defendable Routes,
Abstract
Probability of Negation P(sub N) of an enemy missile depends upon its path from its launch point to its intended asset (target). Since Ballistic Missile (BM) trajectories can be predicted uniquely, once the BM's trajectory is known, then its P(sub N) can be calculated in terms of the probabilities of success in the three major functions. Sensor, BM/C4I and Weapon. In contrast, the Cruise Missile (CM) route between its launch point and its intended asset is preplanned by the enemy, based upon his perception of the defense's performance and beddown, so that his CM will take the route of maximum Probability of Survival P(sub S) (corresponding to minimum predicted P(sub N)) while in transit. This particular route is called the Least Defendable Route (LDR). In our method, Poisson density is used to define a risk field (risk per unit route length along source type eight cardinal directions) in terms of Probability of Detection, Engagement Volumes (volumes of space where engagements are feasible) and Engagement Lengths (length between successive engagements for each engagement unit). The LDR between two points is found by directly maximizing P(sub S) through minimizing the cumulative risk defined as the sum of risk along a route connecting those two points using the D'Esopo-Pape Algorithm. The resulting maximum P(sub S) contour map represents the offense's perception of vulnerability. For the same LDR's, one can perform a model simulation, including additional details, and generate the defense's minimum P(sub N) contour map. These two maps (P(sub S) and P(sub N)) provide complementary views for CM Defense.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jul 22, 1999
- Accession Number
- ADA370548
Entities
People
- N. S. Sivakumaran
- Paul A. Bigelman
- Sean K. Collins
Organizations
- Ballistic Missile Defense Organization