Quantify Risk to Manage Cost and Schedule

Abstract

Too many projects suffer from unachievable budget and schedule goals, caused by unrealistic estimates and the failure to quantify and communicate the uncertainty of these estimates to managers and sponsoring executives. Some projects are beginning to use Monte Carlo methods to improve cost and schedule estimating; however, it is not always done in a systematic manner, mutually understood by both customer and supplier. This article provides a systematic approach based on quantification of expert judgment in a pragmatic and consistent fashion.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jan 01, 1999
Accession Number
ADA371935

Entities

People

  • Fred Raymond

Organizations

  • United States Naval Research Laboratory

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Space

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Acquisition
  • Cost Analysis
  • Cost Estimates
  • Costs
  • Estimators
  • Judgment
  • Military Research
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Risk
  • Risk Factors
  • Space Stations
  • Space Systems
  • Spacecraft
  • Standards
  • Statistical Analysis

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Life Cycle Cost Analysis
  • Strategic Security Studies