Development of Water-Surface Elevation Frequency-of-Occurrence Relationships for the Brunswick, North Carolina, Nuclear Power Plant Site
Abstract
This report describes the procedure and results used in a hurricane stage frequency analysis for the Brunswick Nuclear Power Plant Site using a statistical technique referred to as the empirical simulation technique (EST). This procedure, used for determining frequency of occurrence relationships, is a statistical resampling procedure that uses historical data to develop joint probability relationships among various measured storm parameters (e.g., maximum wind speeds). The resampling scheme generates large populations of data that are statistically similar to a much smaller database of historical events. Using this expanded data set, the EST generates a database of peak storm surge elevations by simulating multiple year periods (e.g., 2,000 year periods) of storm activity a multiple number of times. The Brunswick study described in this report consisted of four interrelated tasks, each employing a separate numerical model. In the first task, historical hurricanes impacting the study area were analyzed to determine storm statistics. From these data, a set of hurricanes, representative of all storms impacting the area, were chosen and subsequently simulated with a tropical wind field model to generate wind and atmospheric pressure fields. Storm surge events developed with the wind model output were simulated, in the second task, using a long wave, finite element based hydrodynamic model to obtain peak storm surge elevations. A spectral wind wave model was employed to estimate wave setup in the third task. With the hurricane parameters serving as input to the wind field model, together with the corresponding total storm surge elevations (combined storm surge, wave setup, and tide) predicted by the various models, statistical techniques are used for developing frequency of occurrence relationships in the fourth and final task.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Dec 01, 1999
- Accession Number
- ADA372183
Entities
People
- David J. Mark
- Lihwa Lin
- Martin C. Miller
- Norman W. Scheffner
- Willie A. Brandon