Computational Models of Human Organizational Dynamics
Abstract
During this quarter we have developed a preliminary specification of the way risk management methods can inform asymmetric threat analysis. The essential steps are as follows: * Strategic decision models of all major stakeholders - self, friends, influential neutral parties, and adversaries are developed formally. These decision models specifically address those decisions that encompass the ways adversaries threaten or otherwise exploit friendly weaknesses (physical and organizational). Therefore we focus on all major parties, and use the content of their decisions to frame and guide the essential modeling requirements. * Value of information analysis is a well-founded technique for pricing information in terms of its impact on the worth of an optimal decision. We propose to use it to determine which information would be both particularly valuable and cost-effective to acquire. Information should be gathered if and only if its influence on the value of the optimal decision exceeds the estimated cost of acquiring the information. * Information expected to produce a net improvement in the outcome is gathered. * Organizational models are built of the practices and joint practices of the actors whose actions affect one or more variables in the decision models - these models are designed to report out the high-value information that needs to be constructed. Our Practice Mapping methodology defines the data-collection and modeling steps. * Organizational simulation is conducted, over a range of scenarios relevant to the sensitive variables in the decision models. * The results of simulation studies are used to refine the information substrate (probability distributions) on which the decision models depend. * Results of simulation are analyzed for requirements to reframe or revise the decision models or organizational models.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- May 31, 1999
- Accession Number
- ADA376569
Entities
People
- Gregg Courand
- Michael Fehling