The View From Pyongyang: Prospects for Survival in the 21st Century
Abstract
The future of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, or North Korea, is in doubt. The past decade has seen a change in national leadership, with the death of Kim II Sung in 1994 and the succession of his son, Kim Jong II. What course will Kim Jong II choose for himself and his country? The political structure of the DPRK has been deliberately crafted to focus all meaningful power and decision-making on the person of Kim Jong II and retains no ability to reform itself. The military serves as the primary organ of regime survival and, while quantitatively impressive, it is increasingly ineffective due to worn out and obsolete equipment. The economy is stagnant and what little production capability exists is used to support the military. Economic reform is minimal and generally limited to unofficial open markets. Kim Jong II will resist reforms to the economy and any dilution of his powers. In order to maintain regime survival the North Korean military nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles programs have become the primary means of extracting foreign economic assistance and political concessions. U.S. and allied negotiators must present a united front to avoid offering North Korean opportunities to exploit differences, while focusing on technical issues immune to counterpart rhetoric or manipulation in order to advance U.S. strategic interests.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Apr 10, 2000
- Accession Number
- ADA377591
Entities
People
- Patrick L. Neky
Organizations
- United States Army War College