Better Development Cost Estimating Through Modeling and Simulation

Abstract

The Office of the Secretary of Defense (Program Analysis and Evaluation) tasked LMI to study how defense acquisition reform, advanced business processes, and new high technologies have affected how products are developed for DoD and what methods should be used to estimate the costs of those developments. In the first phase, LMI examined the defense electronics sector using Global Positioning System receivers as an analog. In that earlier research we found that extant methods and models were not well regarded and, therefore, were not used. This second phase was undertaken to study and address the weaknesses in the legacy approaches. Using military missile defense programs as the subject sector, LMI sought to better characterize the development process and better define the factors that contribute to development cost using cause-and-effect diagramming. With the findings of this investigation, LMI assessed the usefulness of some unconventional estimation techniques. Specifically, we assessed the use of simulations and program execution modeling with cost-time diagrams to forecast the costs and schedules of development programs. We developed a plan to implement this new system throughout DoD.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
May 01, 2000
Accession Number
ADA378782

Entities

People

  • Bobby Jackson
  • David Lee
  • Gerald J. Belcher
  • John Dukovich

Organizations

  • LMI

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Space
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Algorithms
  • Business Administration
  • Computational Complexity
  • Computer Programming
  • Computer Science
  • Contracts
  • Cost Analysis
  • Cost Estimates
  • Global Positioning Systems
  • Management Personnel
  • Manufacturing
  • Operations Research
  • Organizational Structure
  • Probability Distributions
  • Random Variables
  • Simulations
  • Software Development

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Defense Acquisition Program Management
  • Regression Analysis.

Technology Areas

  • Microelectronics
  • Space