The Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update
Abstract
The exceptionally strong U.S. economy continues to generate much higher federal revenues than expected and progressively larger budget surpluses. As a result, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that the total budget surplus in fiscal year 2000 will reach $232 billion in the absence of legislation that would affect spending or tax receipts this year. (As this report was being prepared, the Congress was considering a supplemental appropriation bill that could add more than $10 billion to spending in 2000.) That estimate of the surplus is $53 billion higher than the estimate CBO published in April, largely because revenues have continued to outstrip expectations. If the $232 billion surplus materializes, it will equal 2.4 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), the largest share of the economy since 1948. Perhaps more important to some policymakers, the on-budget surplus (which excludes the spending and revenues of Social Security and the Postal Service) is now expected to rise to $84 billion this year under current policies-over three times as much as CBO previously estimated. The on-budget surplus will rise to more than $100 billion in 2001, CBO projects, and to annual levels approaching or exceeding $400 billion by 2010, depending on assumptions about future levels of discretionary spending.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jul 01, 2000
- Accession Number
- ADA379935
Entities
Organizations
- Congressional Budget Office