UN Peace Operations: Conditions for Success
Abstract
The end of the cold war brought a rapid growth in the number of United Nation's peace operations, but difficult operations in Somalia and Bosnia soon led to a sharp retraction. New UN operations in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kosovo, Sierra Leone, and East Timor may mark the beginning of a second surge in post-cold war peace operations. As peace operations have risen and fallen in repute, numerous studies have examined why they succeed or fail. Yet these studies offer wildly differing explanations because they are often based upon a limited number of cases bounded by a very brief time period. No attempt has been made to generalize across the entire period of peacekeeping operations. This study developed a theory that was used to form hypotheses explaining the relationship among various independent variables as they affect the likelihood of achieving success in peace operations. The variables believed to have an impact upon success were belligerent party consent, the type of conflict, geographic factors such as type of terrain, the degree of peace operation impartiality, the efficiency of command and control, adequacy of the force size, the quality of the mandate, and the degree of great power support. An empirical test was performed to analyze the hypothesized relationships. The analysis showed that the hypothesized relationships between the independent variables and dependent variable were in the proper direction, but many independent variables had no statistically significant effect. However, the level of consent of the belligerent parties and the quality of the mandate proved to have a significant impact upon the potential for success of peace operations. No other variables tested offered such a high explanatory power singly or combined. This has significant implications for the scholarly literature covering peace operations.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jul 17, 2000
- Accession Number
- ADA380018
Entities
People
- Micheal R. Fiedler
Organizations
- Air Force Institute of Technology