Identifying Potential Ethnic Conflict: Application of a Process Model

Abstract

This report outlines a model for anticipating the occurrence of communitarian and ethnic conflict. The intended audience for this report is the intelligence community, though analysts and scholars involved in conflict prevention also should find it useful. The model is not a mechanistic tool, but a process-based heuristic device with a threefold purpose: (1) to order the analyst's thinking about the logic and dynamics of potential ethnically based violence and to aid in defining the information-collection requirements of such an analysis; (2) to provide a general conceptual framework about how ethnic grievances form and group mobilization occurs and how these could lead to violence under certain conditions; and (3) to assist the intelligence community with the long-range assessment of possible ethnic strife. The framework presented here is not meant to substitute for the knowledge, reasoning, or judgment of intelligence analysts. It is simply a tool to help order and organize the information and identify information gaps.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jan 01, 2000
Accession Number
ADA384218

Entities

People

  • Thomas S. Szayne

Organizations

  • RAND Corporation

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical
  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Human Systems
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Congress
  • Employment
  • Ethnic Groups
  • Families (Human)
  • Geography
  • International Conflicts
  • International Organizations
  • International Relations
  • Military Science
  • Minority Groups
  • National Politics
  • National Security
  • Organizational Structure
  • Personnel Management
  • Political Systems
  • Recreation
  • Sociopolitics

Readers

  • Political Violence and Terrorism Studies.
  • Software Engineering.
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.