The Euphrates-Tigris Basin and the Southeastern Anatolia Project: Is Armed Conflict in the Offing

Abstract

Turkey, Syria and Iraq, the main riparians of the Euphrates and Tigris Rivers, have unilaterally created agricultural irrigation schemes and other water utilization projects along these two rivers for centuries. Turkey is currently engaged in ambitious development of both rivers under a broad plan known as the Southeastern Anatolia Project or Guneydogu Anadolu Projesi (GAP). Syria and Iraq are highly dependent upon these two rivers for drinking water, irrigation, industrial uses, and hydroelectricity, and view this project with strong interest. Given the historic and complex religious, ethnic, territorial and hydro-political relationships between these three countries, Turkey's continuing development of the rivers is certain to increase tensions. This paper will examine the hypothesis that Turkey's Southeastern Anatolia Project will reduce water flow to the downstream riparians so drastically as to foment armed conflict in the region within the next ten years. Implications for U.S. national security strategy will also be discussed.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 01, 2001
Accession Number
ADA389065

Entities

People

  • Laurie A. Cason

Organizations

  • United States Army War College

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Counter WMD
  • Energy and Power Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Agreements
  • Droughts
  • Environmental Protection
  • Geography
  • Governments
  • Human Population
  • International Law
  • Middle East
  • National Security
  • Nato
  • Negotiations
  • New York
  • Treaties
  • United States
  • Universities
  • War Colleges
  • Water Resources

Readers

  • East Asian Political and Security Studies within the Soviet Union
  • Environmental Engineering
  • Nuclear Non-Proliferation and International Security