Relating Initial Budget to Program Growth With Rayleigh and Weibull Models

Abstract

Previous research on completed defense R&D shows that contract expenditures can be fit well with a Rayleigh model. With fixed outlay rates, as prescribed by the OSD comptroller, the budget profile must have most of the funds in the early years to produce Rayleigh-distributed expenditures. R&D programs with more delayed funding profiles may also produce expenditures that a Rayleigh model fits through schedule slips and cost overruns. This research tests how well the initial funding profile produces Rayleigh-distributed expenditures that can be related to the program's final cost overrun and schedule slips. Based only on the initial budget profile, we explain 53.3% of cost overruns and 51.1% of percent schedule slip in 37 completed programs.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 01, 2001
Accession Number
ADA390987

Entities

People

  • Eric J. Unger

Organizations

  • Air Force Institute of Technology

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Ground and Sea Platforms
  • Human Systems
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Airborne Warning And Control System
  • Business Administration
  • Contracts
  • Cost Analysis
  • Cost Estimates
  • Cost Overruns
  • Costs
  • Databases
  • Department Of Defense
  • Distribution Functions
  • Information Science
  • Mathematical Models
  • Military Budgets
  • Probability Density Functions
  • Software Development
  • Test And Evaluation

Readers

  • Life Cycle Cost Analysis
  • Public Financial Management and Budgeting
  • Statistical inference.