RAND Research Brief: China's Commercial Technology. Implicatons for Future Military Capabilities
Abstract
If China's economy continues to grow as expected over the next 20 years, by 2020 it will surpass that of the United States in terms of purchasing power. Such growth would in theory provide China with the economic base to field a military comparable to that of the United States. But in order to become a true military superpower, China would need to make major improvements in the technological capabilities of its defense industries. One potential source of such improvement could lie in China's civilian industries, many of which currently enjoy unprecedented levels of foreign technology and investment. In The Military Potential of China's Commercial Technology, RAND researcher Roger Cliff investigates the degree to which China's commercial sector could contribute to improved military technology over the next 20 years. The study finds that, while China is likely to narrow the technology gap by 2020, average civilian and military technological levels in China should be expected to remain significantly behind those of the United States and Japan. This failure to "catch up" does not mean that China cannot present a serious military challenge to the United States, however. U.S. policymakers must prepare to address a China whose military technologies continue to advance steadily and one likely to develop strong military capabilities in "niche" areas.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 2001
- Accession Number
- ADA392579
Entities
Organizations
- RAND Corporation