Determining the Accuracy and Limits of Predictability of Numerical Weather Prediction for Regional Tactical Military Operations
Abstract
The U.S. Department of Defense aims to develop capabilities for the numerical prediction of small-scale weather as part of its Theatre Battle Management project. This is accomplished at research centers run by each branch of the military. Perhaps the most significant unknown at this point is the specific accuracy of the short-term, high-resolution models and the extent to which the forecasts can provide the guidance needed for tactical military operations. This report provides a detailed description of the research carried out under an Department of Defense Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (DEPSCoR) grant funded by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research. The overall objectives of this research project were to perform basic research into development of statistical methods for model validation, produce research quality data sets that could be used for operational verification, examine issues in uncertainty characterization, and to identify and examine the accuracies and uncertainties in the operational models currently being run by the Air Force Global Weather Center and the Army Research Laboratory using the Oklahoma Mesonet and other data sets. These research efforts have bee carried out through the interdisciplinary Environmental Verification and Analysis Center (EVAC) at the University of Oklahoma which was established to develop and apply geostatistical methods to utilize point measurements of geophysical data to verify model and remote sensing output. Included in this report is a short list of initial objectives, a summary of the key findings and results, and list of the research publications and presentations produced as a result of this grant.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- May 01, 2001
- Accession Number
- ADA396982
Entities
People
- John S. Greene
- Mark L. Morrissey
Organizations
- University of Oklahoma