Reducing Non-Monotonicities In Combat Models
Abstract
Non-monotonic behavior in combat models is an important topic to those using the output of such models as a basis for decision making These decisions can be complicated by non-monotonic behavior in the combat models This paper examines the Dewar model which exhibits non-monotonic behavior caused by the chaos inherent in its structure, Previous papers have examined only small subsets of this 18 dimensional combat model The combinatorial possibilities of main effects and interactions among the 18 dimensions are too great to examine en masse Consequently, we have three goals First, systematically explore the Dewar model for additional non-monotonic behavior, Second, determine the effect of stochastic modeling on the non-monotonic behavior of the Dewar model response surface, Third, we develop a method for measuring non- monotonicity in the response surface generated by the model Latin Hypercube Sampling discovers non-monotonicity across broad regions of the model's phase space, and in multiple measures of effectiveness, Stochastic perturbation of model parameters has a dramatic effect on the non-monotonicity of the response surface, Stochastic perturbation can both reduce and exacerbate the non-monotonic behavior of the response surface, If done properly, stochastic modeling can significantly improve the interpretability of the response surface.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 01, 2001
- Accession Number
- ADA397601
Entities
People
- William C. Vinyard
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School