Analyzing Complex Threats for Operations and Readiness (ACTOR)

Abstract

This study uses recently developed data mining tools and draws upon an extensive database that includes annually aggregated data covering political, economic, and socio-cultural domains for some 159 countries over the period 1975-1999 to forecast the likelihood that countries throughout the world will experience a certain level of intensity of instability over the period 2001-2015. The study uses a pattern classification algorithm-Fuzzy Analysis of Statistical Evidence (FASE)--developed by Chen (2000) on behalf of the US Army to identify and analyze the relationships between country macro-structural factors and historical occurrences of instability. The results demonstrate the potential capability of the model to accurately forecast not just the occurrence, but also the level, of intensity of country instability 6 years in advance with about 80 percent overall accuracy. The results of the analysis are used in support of the Enabling Strategic Responsiveness (ESR) and Deployment Optimization Research in Tools and Operations (DORITO) studies.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 01, 2001
Accession Number
ADA399370

Entities

People

  • Sean O'brien

Organizations

  • Center for Army Analysis

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Human Systems
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accuracy
  • Algorithms
  • Civil Rights
  • Classification
  • Data Mining
  • Deployment
  • Governments
  • Instability
  • Intensity
  • International Conflicts
  • National Security
  • Optimization
  • Second World War
  • Security
  • South Asia
  • Test Sets
  • United States European Command

Readers

  • Asian Economic Studies
  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology
  • Distributed Systems and Data Platform Development

Technology Areas

  • AI & ML
  • AI & ML - DoD AI Strategy