Modeling Man-Made Epidemics

Abstract

This thesis develops a mathematical model to explore epidemic spread through the Ground Combat Element (GCE) of the Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU). The model will simulate an epidemic caused by a biological attack using an agent that has the ability to spread through person-to-person contact (small pox hemorrhagic fever, etc.) A stochastic modeling process will be used along with widely accepted mathematical formulas an SEIR (Susceptible- Exposed-Infectious-Removed) epidemic model. A heterogeneous population composed of numerous homogenous subgroups with varying interaction rates simulates the unique structure of military combat units. The model will be evaluated to determine which units facilitate the most rapid spread of the epidemic. The model will then test a number of different scenarios to determine the effects of varying quarantine techniques, vaccination strategies and protective postures on the spread of the diseases.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 01, 2002
Accession Number
ADA402898

Entities

People

  • Ryan Paterson

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Algorithms
  • Basic Programming Language
  • Biological Weapons
  • Command And Control
  • Differential Equations
  • Equations
  • Equine Encephalitis
  • Health Services
  • Infectious Diseases
  • Medical Personnel
  • Military Operations
  • Probability
  • Quarantine
  • Spreadsheet Software
  • United States
  • Warfare
  • Weapons Effects

Fields of Study

  • Mathematics

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Infectious Disease/Epidemiology
  • Maritime Combat Support and Expeditionary Logistics.

Technology Areas

  • Biotechnology