Development and Implementation of a Statistical Typoon Intensity Prediction Scheme for the Western North Pacific
Abstract
The primary objective of this project was to create and implement a 5-day Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme (STIPS) into the operational suite of products available to JTWC. The development of such a scheme builds on the success of the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) developed for the Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific and used by the National Hurricane Center (DeMaria and Kaplan 1999). In the process of developing STIPS, a comprehensive statistical analysis is performed which identifies the physical processes associated with tropical cyclone intensification in this basin along with their relative importance. The resulting statistical scheme, STIPS produces tropical cyclone intensity forecasts along a specified forecast track. The STIPS model also has a companion formulation Decay-STiPS which factors in the effect of interaction with land and decays the forecasted intensity accordingly. A secondary objective was the development of simple 5-day statistical typhoon intensity forecast (STIFOR-5D) model which is based upon climatology and persistence (CLIPER). The development of this simple model was necessitated by the operational requirement to verify forecasts.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 01, 2002
- Accession Number
- ADA404023
Entities
People
- John A. Knaff
Organizations
- Colorado State University