Decisions within Complex Systems: An Experimental Approach Using the STRATEGEM-2 Computer Game
Abstract
In 1989, John Sterman published his seminal paper, Misperceptions of Feedback in Dynamic Decision Making. His misperception of feedback hypothesis deals with the difficulty people have in managing complex environments even when they purportedly have perfect knowledge and have perfect information about the system. Over the years, several authors have attempted to consider how the human failures, which are a prominent part of the misperception of feedback hypothesis, can be reduced. However, these authors have achieved mixed results in attempting to make improvements to human decision support. It is the purpose of the current research to provide meaningful decision support to managers of complex environments. Specifically, the research used the STRATEGEM-2 simulation game and purposely developed a decision support method designed to improve human performance within a complex system. The experiment required subjects to make a single decision within a dynamic system where the task involved feedback delays, nonlinearity of system processes, positive feedback loops, and multiple cues. The decision support included a decision rule and a newly developed game instruction designed to improve participant knowledge and information about the microeconomy of the STRATEGEM-2 simulation. Results of the research have discovered that the new instruction and the decision support rule produced significant results in improving decision making. Additionally, this research demonstrates that the lack of participant motivation levels can mask decision support interventions. Subjects with high self-assessed motivation outperformed those subjects with lesser motivation levels.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 2002
- Accession Number
- ADA405222
Entities
People
- J. R. Bois
Organizations
- State University of New York at Albany