Evaluating the Potential for the Development of Illegal Trade in Fissile Material from the Former Soviet Union: An Application of Ullman's Triad
Abstract
The purpose of this thesis is to evaluate the likelihood that illegal trade in fissile material from the Former Soviet Union (FSU) could occur between the nuclear successor states of the FSU and bona fide customers - states/groups which may, now or in the future, wish to threaten U.S. national security interests at home or abroad with an Improvised Nuclear Device (IND). My work will illustrate this potentiality by applying the factors of trade presented by Ullman's Triad, to show that a substance as potentially dangerous as Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) U-235/U-238 or plutonium Pu-239 can, given the right circumstances, undergo a process of commodification and be traded illegally on the black market. I will also provide evidence to show that this process is underway and that a black market in FSU fissile material is currently developing in three phases which could result in the transfer of an adequate amount of fissile material from the FSU into the hands of terrorists who would then be able to create an Improvised Nuclear Device (IND).
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 04, 1999
- Accession Number
- ADA406262
Entities
People
- Max F. Gutierrez Jr
Organizations
- University of Washington