A Method for Sensitivity Analysis of Ground Protection Afforded by Endoatmospheric Intercept of Chemical Weapons

Abstract

We have developed preliminary estimates of the protection afforded on the ground from releasing chemicals at altitude in the atmosphere and have used such estimates to determine the sensitivity of the protection to major variables such as wind speed, release altitude, drop size distribution, and turbulent dispersion. The approach used can be applied to provide detailed quantitative sensitivity analyses for each of the variables considered here. Preliminary sensitivity analysis indicates the most important variable affecting protection on the ground in all conditions and all altitudes of release is drop size distribution. We find that the drop size distribution so dominates the other variables that for a lognormal drop size distribution varying the truncation width assumed for the distribution produces larger variations in protection on the ground than the typical range of either release altitude or wind speed. The sensitivity analysis indicates the most important factor affecting ground deposition is drop size distribution. These results suggest that understanding and measuring the initial drop size distribution can reduce uncertainty concerning protection on the ground.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 01, 2001
Accession Number
ADA406327

Entities

People

  • Frank Handler

Organizations

  • University of California

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Altitude
  • Chemical Warfare Agents
  • Chemical Weapons
  • Coefficients
  • Defense Systems
  • Diameters
  • Dispersions
  • Efficiency
  • Equations
  • Materials
  • Measures Of Effectiveness
  • Physics
  • Physics Laboratories
  • Probability
  • Standards
  • Turbulence
  • Weapons

Fields of Study

  • Environmental science

Readers

  • Explosive Engineering.
  • Statistical inference.