An Intuitive (But Analytical) Approach to the Effectiveness of Kill Chain Automation Measures
Abstract
The Time Critical Targeting (TCT) process *also referred to as the 'Kill Chain') depends heavily on information for success. Increasing 'fast' and 'reliable' information flow are the two MOEs most often used to increase kill chain effectiveness. This paper explores both of the MOEs, by modeling forward and backward error rates for generic kill-chain components as a Markhov chain. The value of the discrete Markhov model lies in its simple and intuitive nature, the measurability of the independent variables, its wide applicability, and Its analytical tractability. We briefly sketch the results of a simple simulation, which extend the Markhov model and address some of its limitations. Multiple simulation runs were conducted and analyzed over several conditions to statistically evaluate impacts of error rates on the kill-chain timeliness and probability of mission success. Application of this model may provides a robust approach to allow system-of-systems architects to evaluate potential trade-space options for the kill chain as a whole. It allows an Intuitive feel into the relative importance of system interoperability; data checking; and command, control and communications (C3) links, including estimates of how forward and backward error rates influence both the ultimate time to engage and the probability of correct engagement.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Nov 26, 2001
- Accession Number
- ADA406384
Entities
People
- Eva Cza
- James H. Baker
Organizations
- Assistant Secretary of the Air Force