Oil, Security, and the Post-9/11 World
Abstract
The September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks did not directly threaten world oil supplies, but they exposed the long-term danger of relying on an energy source found chiefly in one of the world's most explosive regions. Oil dependency has major consequences for the U.S. and other major consumers. This paper examines the driving forces and trends that will affect the global supply of oil to 2020. It then identifies possible economic and geopolitical implications of oil dependency and offers suggestions for a U.S. energy security strategy. The paper finds that while oil will remain plentiful, globalization and growing world demand will make oil consumers increasingly vulnerable to disruption. At the same time, the risk of disruption from interstate conflict, resource competition, internal instability, and other factors will grow. Oil dependency is inescapable in the short-run, and the U.S. can only manage and minimize the risk of disruption by defending the supply of oil and by hedging against future interruptions. Over the long-term, however, the United States should seek to reduce oil dependency by increasing efficiency and developing energy alternatives.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- May 17, 2002
- Accession Number
- ADA406503
Entities
People
- Gregory A. Hermsmeyer
Organizations
- Naval War College