A Micro-Simulation Model of the Benefits and Costs of Prostate Cancer Screening and Treatment
Abstract
This idea development award developed a micro-simulation model of prostate cancer screening and treatment. As described in our initial proposal, we developed an detailed model of the natural history, screening, and treatment of prostate cancer organized around a Markov model that incorporated true stage and grade of tumor, misclassification of tumors that generates discrepancies between clinical and true stage, and other innovative features that had been neglected in prior models. We also extended the model to account for persistent heterogeneity that would not be adequately modeled by usual Markov models. We also did a detailed structured literature review to estimate key parameters of our model and developed new techniques to estimate the parameters of the natural history model by fitting it to aggregate and individual-level data from the SEER program. Our baseline analysis suggests that screening and treatment will increase life expectancy but decrease quality-adjusted life expectancy. Potential gains are largest in men ages SO-70 and when undiagnosed cancer creates substantial anxiety. We published a paper based on some initial analyses of treatment patterns, have a main cost-effectiveness manuscript in progress, and received ROl funding from the National Cancer Institute to further extend this work.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 2002
- Accession Number
- ADA406735
Entities
People
- David O. Meltzer
- Ibrahim Abdalla
Organizations
- University of Chicago