Retrieve Tether Survival Probability
Abstract
The survival probability with time of the Rendezvous, Examine, and Tethered Return for Immolative Evaporation Experiment (RETRIEVE) tether due to cuts of the tether by meteorites and orbital debris, is calculated to be 99.934% for the planned experiment duration of six months or less. This is equivalent to odds of 1 out of 1500 of the tether being severed during the six-month duration of the experiment. Nearly all of this relatively low risk is due to the unlikely event of a strike by a large piece of orbital debris greater than 1 meter in size cutting all the lines of the tether at once. The probability of the tether surviving multiple cuts by meteoroid and orbital debris impactors smaller than 5 cm in diameter is 99.9993% at six months, so severing of the tether by that mode has odds of less than 1 in 150,000. The tether survival probability Mh time will remain above 99% until after 5 years of exposure to cuts. After three decades of cuts, it will have fallen to 90%.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 08, 2002
- Accession Number
- ADA410113
Entities
People
- Robert L. Forward