Survey of Long-Term Technology Forecasting Methodologies

Abstract

Technology forecasting can be used in two important ways: to assess the military (or other) applicability of recognized emerging technologies and to seek new or breakthrough approaches for solving existing problems. This document reviews some methodologies that have been used in attempts to forecast future technologies. These methodologies include formal approaches E.G., BRAINSTORMING, THE Delphi Technique, the Horizon Mission Methodology (HMM), Service studies, and the Institute for Defense Analyses involvement in the Military Critical Technologies (MCT) process and informal approaches (e.g., science fiction).The primary focus is on the longer term (perhaps 50 years in the future) and on potentially applicable military technologies.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Nov 01, 2002
Accession Number
ADA410179

Entities

People

  • A. Calhoun
  • A. Seraphin
  • B. Balko
  • R. C. Oliver

Organizations

  • Institute for Defense Analyses

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Advanced Electronics
  • Air Platforms
  • Biomedical
  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Space
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Aircrafts
  • Artificial Satellites
  • Astronautics
  • Delphi Method
  • Directed Energy Weapons
  • Engineers
  • Jet Propulsion
  • Military Applications
  • Military Science
  • National Security
  • Space Systems
  • Spacecraft
  • Unmanned Aerial Vehicles
  • War Colleges
  • Warning Systems
  • Weapons Effects

Fields of Study

  • Environmental science

Readers

  • Adaptive Control and Estimation with Uncertainty in Dynamic Systems.
  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology
  • Organizational Process Management (OPM).