Use of Multivariate Techniques to Validate and Improve the Current USAF Pilot Candidate Selection Model
Abstract
The Pilot Candidate Selection Method (PCSM) seeks to ensure the highest possible probability of success at UPT. PCSM applies regression weights to a candidate's Air Force Officer Qualification Test (AFOQT) Pilot composite score, self-reported flying hours, and five Basic Attributes Test (BAT) score composites. PCSM scores range between 0 and 99 and is interpreted as a candidate's probability of passing UPT. The goal of this study is to apply multivariate data analysis techniques to validate PCSM and determine appropriate changes to the model's weights. Performance of the updated weights is compared to the current PCSM model via Receiver Operating Curves (ROC). In addition, two independent models are developed using multi-layer perceptron neural networks and discriminant analysis. Both linear and logistic regression is used to investigate possible updates to PCSM's current linear regression weights. An independent test set is used to estimate the generalized performance of the regressions and independent models. Validation of the current PCSM model demonstrated in the first phase of this research is enhanced by the fact that PCSM outperforms all other models developed in the research.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 01, 2003
- Accession Number
- ADA412692
Entities
People
- Ross A. Keener
Organizations
- Air Force Institute of Technology